Super Tuesday - Some Thoughts

Most of the commentators are calling it a Clinton victory by an edge, but they're looking at the smallest of small pictures here. Personally, I couldn't handle the tension, and went to bed only to spend my sleeping time dreaming of absurd outcomes, only to find a 14 - 8 state sweep for Obama, but essentially a delegate draw.

Some perspective before I launch into my ever-positive analysis: Hopes for a California were really dreams, for one reason and one reason alone. Absentee ballots. These had been distributed in January, when Clinton was still riding in a 20% lead over Obama. Don't forget they also included ballots casted for Edwards before he dropped out. The fact that he narrowed this down to 10% is still impressive, and reflects the surge in polls, though sadly wasn't enough to carry the state and the bragging rights therein.

For me, the biggest disappointment of the night was New Jersey. I was really thinking that there would be a slimmer margin than it was, and was privately predicting a victory. Massachusetts less so. That was a Clinton stronghold from day one, and it just shows the bare-faced disingenuity once again that they are spinning it as a surprise victory.

Big victories then? Georgia was a complete rout that the Clinton camp were quick to play down as meaningless (helpfully avoiding the racist undertones that Bill managed when commenting on the South Carolina result). Connecticut, though close, was a nice little coup. It's always good to snatch something out of your opponents backyard, and Obama was the only one to do so this evening.

Let's now consider Illinois versus New York. Naturally each senator won their own state. It would be an upset of epic proportions if they didn't. However, what of the margins? Obama won his by an impressive 32%, almost twice the margin of Clinton's 17%. This is probably because he has served more years in elected politics for that state than Clinton in New York (or indeed at all). But being a native daughter of Chicago, you'd think there would at least be a sentimental groundswell for her.

Apparently not. The upshot out of all this? If we add up the delegate tallies from both states for both candidates, Hillary having won the second largest state in the country, Obama ends up seven delegates ahead of her. So, when it comes to the home state advantage, he wins it with style.


Here are the reasons I think last night will ultimately be seen as a better night for Obama in the grand scheme of things.

1. In statistical terms it was a draw.

A stone cold draw. Anyone who tells you otherwise has a memory not too far removed from a goldfish. There was a virtual plurality in the popular votes; the kudos of Clinton's big states was balanced by the sheer number of states that Obama carried and the margins by which he carried them.

So why is this actually a victory for Obama? Simple. You ever see the Rocky films? Ok, even if you haven't you know the basic principle - salty underdog takes on established champion. At the climactic battle at the very end, the champ (let's use Rocky IV's Ivan Drago) pummels the underdog relentlessly, and although the latter lands a few punches, he's still standing and in fighting shape six rounds later. By boxing standards, that's technically a victory thus far, but the very fact Rocky is not only standing, but still able to put up a fight was inconceivable before the match began. Thus it is here.

Let me say what I said after New Hampshire once again. For longer than anyone can remember now, Clinton held a 20% lead against Obama, and that was with Edwards still in the race. Now he's level pegging not only in the polls, but also in the actual vote.

To continue the Rocky metaphor, Clinton has thrown so many punches and so much against Obama that she's actually in a worse position financially, and he's got the energy to carry on right to the DNC floor if necessary. She's already tapped most of her contributors fully. His is mostly from small donors, so there's a lot of reserve energy. Her campaign has said time and again that

Boxing analogies aside, the two candidates are now truly even for the first time in entire race. They are essentially starting the race from point zero. And this leads into my second reason...

2. The Obama campaign just gets stronger as time goes on

A lot of people will call bullshit on the fact Obama won a lot of Caucuses. My response? Cry me a river. The fact that the Clinton machine has neglected the art of the caucus is because they were hubristic enough to think that they didn't need to win states that were decided that way. Her weakness here only highlights Obama's strength. It is supremely impressive the way the non-establishment candidate can do that, especially given he's had only three years in national politics. He's won seven out of eight caucus races, and even in the one he lost (Nevada) he came out with more delegates.

The caucus is an imperfect system as far as democratic devices go, but every player knows the rules when they enter, so they can't cry foul when they fail to properly utilise the system. Caucuses have been a good way for Obama to get a large number of delegates while conserving his resources, which leads into my third point...

3. The February primaries very much favour Obama

Yes they do. I ungenerously slate the pundits for having short memories. The start of the race seems a decade ago in comparison to where we are now. Saturdays three races are caucuses, one of which, Lousiana, should favour Obama because of its high African American population. All through February there are more states will favour Obama, Virginia and Maryland spring immediately to mind, with 200 delegates between them. DC, Wisconsin and Hawaii follow, ending on the 19th February. It is then the campaigns get their first real respite, after what should be a healthy month for Obama. Not decisive by any means, but it should do no harm to his momentum and fundraising.

Giving Obama the ability to lead into my fourth point...

4. The more time Obama has to campaign, the more effective his performance.

Texas and Ohio. Clinton's next "firewalls" according the pundits in her corners. Only, we've heard so much of the firewalls that were supposed to stop Obama in his tracks, and it's never come to pass. All they've done is contain him, which isn't much of an achievement for the establishment candidate. However, for Texas and Ohio, Obama has the time and resources to erode the received wisdom as to those states voting intentions. Given this, I think he can win both states, or at the very least dent any Clinton plurality there to the point of insignificance. I won't predict anything other than it will be close. So close that we'll probably head into April, by all reckonings. I decline at this stage to predict anything beyond.

Although I get the feeling after last night that I'll be writing these notes for a while, probably into May, if not beyond.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - it's going to be a long road ahead.

Upcoming notes:

What Obama needs to do after Super Tuesday
The Arguments for a Clinton Nomination
Super Delegates