Brief thoughts on what to expect from Super Tuesday and beyond

I write this brief note rather late in the day, just to get my ideas on record, and to see how wrong I am come morning. Though I sit on the fence so much here, only a decisive result will prove me wrong. So here goes.

The short answer is, failing an upset, a long run up until the end of March, maybe April. I am pretty sure we won't get a winner today.

The expectations are on Clinton to carry most of the states vis-a-vis the popular vote. That said, Obama isn't expected to come far behind, so the race will really come down to the number of delegates unless there are some major upsets.

That said, there are signs that the Clinton campaign is faltering. The challenge to televised debates is generally made by the underdog candidate who has nothing to lose from such a challenge. It's quite a play of the hand, and it could seriously backfire if the Obama camp gains in confidence after tonight.

Super Tuesday was supposed to inherently favour Clinton, if only because of name recognition and the fact that Obama's rise was based on his ability to get his face out there in the early states. Hereafter, there is time again for him and his camp to collect and replicate the effect he had on the early states. He can compete on a 2 to 1 fund advantage and by bursting through the firewall, can convince more doubters that he's the real deal.

As to superdelegates... that's a tricky one. There's a lot of fence-sitting going on. The thing with the Democrat party elite is that I don't think that many of them want to plump for Clinton, but they fear the retribution if they stick their necks out for Obama. I think if there's a sense that he's within reach of winning it but for their pledge, there'll be a flood of endorsements. I personally maintain the opinion that had he won New Hampshire, they'd be level pegging in SupDels (and I'd have been in the international press, but that's another matter), such is history though.

Finally, the Clinton machine is the Clinton machine - it's proven in the past two decades to be like Rasputin: inexplicably seductive and impossible to kill (for better or worse).

Exit polls seem to indicate a long haul. Expect my analysis tomorrow.

Postscript: I am officially in love with Scarlett Johansson after seeing her in that will.i.am video. Not that I was exactly ambivalent before. If anyone can get her number for me, that'd be super.