New Hampshire Primary - LIVE

Part one is a preamble, followed by a brief intermission on my conversation with Reuters today

Part two is on events as they unfold.

Hope you read/enjoy. Full analysis tomorrow.

***PART ONE - THE PREAMBLE

I'm doing this as the night goes on, rather than a few days late as last time, so it should be a bit more narrative, for what that's worth. Insomnia sometimes has it's upsides I guess. As an opener, I am a little concerned that the media's expectations of the Obama bounce. They are predicting double digits, and while I'm happy for that to happen, if it doesn't happen for whatever reason, and there's slimmer margin of victory, they may just declare Clinton the "comeback kid".

That said, Obama has remained calm throughout the five days, and he himself has not overplayed expectations. Neither has his campaign team, to their credit. In fact, taking a step back, it is well to remember that only a week ago he was facing polls with Clinton ahead to the same degree that he was. Even if he doesn't get the magic double digits, or there's a relative shock upset and he doesn't win, it's a departure from the perceived wisdom of a few weeks ago that this is Clinton's Firewall and strong state for the former first lady. The key then becomes to take South Carolina in a fair fashion, which he should be set to do.

Actually there's an upside. If Hillary better than expected in New Hampshire, it's probable that Mark Penn will stay at the head of her campaign. Given my opinion that he's a gargantuan idiot, this can only be a good thing. Heaven forbid that the Clinton campaign actually gets a sense that it isn't the mid-90s any more. However, on the downside, it opens up the distinct possibilty that the Clinton Machine will take off the gloves and go very negative.

END OF PART ONE***

I got interviewed by a guy from Reuters today about the impact of the Obama phenomenon worldwide. I'm not sure if he'll use what I said in his piece. I bigged up the UK for Obama group, and it would be cool to get some extra coverage on that, and maybe ride a bit further with it down the line.

***PART TWO - THE RESULTS

01:25AM Ok, results are coming in. It is so tense, I can barely describe it. McCain has been called as the winner on most of the networks. With only 12% reporting but with exit poll analysis factored in I think this is a fair call. While we're here, I quite like McCain. I liked him in 2000 and if there's a Republican with a realistic prospect of success, I'm not unhappy with him being it. I may do a note on the GOP race before February 5th. I may not.

01:40AM It's 40% to 36% in favour of Clinton right now with 16% of precincts reporting. CNN are calling John Edwards at third. This may be important later. He's running at 17% right now, down 5% from a general average of 22%. More on this later.

01:46AM Romney speaks. I have to say, he really looks how I imagine a young Vice-President Daniels (from the latest series of 24) to look. He congratulates McCain with more class than I would have expected of him. Oddly, he's using the change line from the Democrat race. Almost echoing the line of Edwards and Obama. Strange. I actually like the words coming out of his mouth right now, but having witnessed his campaign, can only gawp at how ultimately disingenuous it is.

01:58AM It's going to be a long night. Huckabee is to speak now. He reminds me of President Logan from 24 while we're on the topic. I'm not a huge fan of evangelicals in politics, but I've got to say that Huckabee does come across as a nice enough guy, and to his credit he has shaken up the GOP race, regardless of what I feel about his positions. On the Dem race, it's still close. Clinton has the edge right now.

02:11AM Here's McCain to speak. I'll confess, this is the first speech of his that I've watched. He proclaims himself the Comeback Kid, and he's right. Three months ago he was considered a hair away from dropping out of the race. He speaks with a sense of dignity that is hard not to respect. He's playing the maverick card pretty strongly and that's an admirable position to take. He fired his campaign staff for suggesting otherwise, and it would seem that his position has been vindicated. That said, he still has the toughest of races ahead of him. I personally wish him luck. There has to be a GOP candidate, and I hope it is he. His supporters at this speech sound like idiots though. Overall, an incredibly classy speech, so congratulations to him. I do like "Johnny B Good" as an end to his speech.

02:26AM I don't know why the networks keep talking about this being a bad night for Giuliani, as they did in Iowa. He didn't campaign to any substantial degree in either state. That's not his campaign and it's dumb to call right now. He's playing a Super-Duper Tuesday game. It's going to be a lot tighter now that McCain has posted so well. He will get a fair surge in the intervening states.

02:33AM Two delegates each so far. It's still tight. College towns have yet to come in. Keep the faith. Pundits are noting the strong showing for McCain and the Independent votes are going.

02:40AM CNN are reporting a projected 5 to 4 delegates in favour of Obama. Again, this is based on current poll returns and exit polls. FOX exit polls had it at 39% to 36% in favour of Obama. CNN report that the gender gap is back. Older voters favour Clinton, younger Obama, the latter by a bigger margin, but making a lesser impact in terms of turnout. In other words we're not seeing the same demographic patterns that we did in Iowa.

02:45AM Ron Paul speaks. I... I really don't want to give this idiot campaign any coverage. I'll give him a nod for having organised it so tightly. On every opinion piece that I've seen there is always at least one ridiculous comment that Ron Paul is basically the second coming, to an extent that is completely unrepresentative of his presence in the campaign.

02:51AM Some idiot on CNN just said that it was a mistake for Obama to be humble about his poll successes. Stupid analysis. He didn't on expectations, and no matter the result, that was the smart move. The only group playing on expectations was the media.

03:23AM Eight delegates each for Obama and Clinton. 39% to 36% still in her favour.

03:35AM I can't go on any further. It looks like it's going to be closer than the polls suggested. As I go to bed, the Associated Press has called it for Clinton. CNN too now, and Obama just conceded. It's looking like there's a less than 5% in it though and Obama will get close to Clinton in terms of the number of delegates, if not the same. I'll give you my full perspective tomorrow.