New Hampshire Analysis and Reasons to Feel Good

There was one clear loser last night, and that was the media.

In the run up to the final count, you couldn't move for obituaries on the Clinton dynasty and predictions of double-digit victories for Obama. Neither happened. Instead at the final count we have Clinton at 39% to Obama's 36%. This was basically the count from the outset, when only 8% of districts were in. At the time, it was disheartening. How could it not have been? The expectation was immense.

Expect the pundits to chew on this for a few weeks: Was it the crying game? Was it the Bradley factor? Did McCain's surge in support from independents detract from Barack's base? Was Iowa just a blip? Is Clinton actually inevitable? And so on.

I won't go into these in turn, they probably all had a part to play. However, I'm torn on the crying thing. On the one hand, I don't want to assume that women are so easily duped into voting for a female candidate just because she is seen as capable of crying. On the other hand, if it was the crying then it's a good thing for the Obama campaign for a number of reasons. Firstly, it's a one-time get out of jail card. She won't be able to do it again, or it will seem, genuine or not, like a classic piece of Clintonian theatre. Secondly, if women voters elsewhere get a sense that the New Hampshire gals were duped, there will be a backlash. We've seen in Iowa a situation where her gender base is willing to go to Obama, so Clinton may not carry the female vote as easily it is suggested she now will. Finally, I think she's put herself into a bit of a corner here and it does little for her "electability" argument, which I have a feeling will re-emerge in South Carolina. And, sorry to sound sexist here, she can't really play the aggressive hawk in the debates anymore with any level of integrity. The US is electing a President, not lobbying for the right of women to cry in public after two weeks of hard campaigning.

Overall, this could be the most genuine glimpse into Hillary's soul we've ever had. It's possible, and for my money, it is. But there's the kicker. After all, she was the one who cockily said "now comes the fun par?" before her descent into negativity and innuendo. It's hard to feel sorry for her at this juncture. A final point: if this was genuine, it's actually also quite disturbing. It shows that there is such a sense of entitlement lurking within Clinton, and a rather creepy personal reaction that the American public isn't paying it.

Back to Obama. I'm going to point out firstly that he technically didn't lose New Hampshire at all. He got the same number of delegates as Clinton. Nine each. And the "super-delegates" of NH actually favoured him 3-2 in the end. I'll write more on super-delegates another time.

Of course, share of the vote counts in the eyes of the media, especially when you're expecting a double-digit result in the opposite direction. Given the possibility of that in the minds of Obama supporters, you'd be entitled to feel disappointed. You wouldn't be correct in that feeling though, and here's a few reasons why.

1. Remember, New Hampshire was supposed to be Clinton's Firewall in this race. That meant that a few weeks ago, the polls and the pundits were expecting her to put the opposition out of contention with her NH standing, no matter the Iowa result. Instead, she made a minor comeback by less than 3% over someone who two weeks ago she was polling 13% against in the state.

2. Insurgent candidates usually fall after an early setback for one reason, and one reason alone: money. Let's remember, that if this comes down to state-by-state battle, Obama has the resources and organisation to match her dollar-for-dollar, activist-for-activist.

3. There are signs of union endorsements coming Obama's way. A couple of prominent Nevada unions look set to make him their man, and this will probably just be the beginning. The reason one Union cited? That Barack was a man "who could take the campaign all the way to November". This is a sign of Democratic bases waking up to the fact that Clinton is no longer in line for a coronation. She's in line for a very tough fight and there is a credible and superior alternative.

4. Florida. If there was another Clinton firewall before the 5th of February, this was it. Older voters seem to love the Clintons, and this would have paid serious dividends. Unfortunately for them, the state is basically meaningless now, because it's been stripped of its delegates and no candidate is going to campaign there. That said, with a base loyal Clinton, a win for Obama would be severe moral victory for the campaign at large. A win for Clinton is to be expected, so won't be big news.

5. Look again. The polls weren't all wrong. If you look at them, the final outcome seems to show that his level of support stayed consistent. It was Hillary who surged at the last minute. After all, there were enough undecideds in the polls for that to happen if you took numbers away from Edwards and Richardson. The lesson here? Obama seems to be building a consistent and loyal base. When he hits a high in the polls, he doesn't fall.

6. Obama's speech was inspired and soaring. This one was reminiscent of JFK. He turned a disappointed crowd into a rapt audience who would have done anything for the man. It was better than Iowa, and it was good preparation for South Carolina. "Yes we can!" was good, "Yes we did!" would also have been accurate.

Ultimately, this is a setback from a position that, a few months ago, no one expected Obama would hold, to a position which most said it would be improbable that he could hold. In other words, in the long game (and make no mistake, this is most definitely a long game) the past week taken as a whole has been a significant success for Barack. Insurgent campaigns fail for another reason as well, and that is lack of steam, and demoralisation. This will not happen to an Obama campaign. His supporters are now more sober and determined than ever. He remains a once in a generation candidate, one that will not be abandoned in a race that is breaking turnout records left, right and center.

All that said, nothing would have pleased me more than a double-digit New Hampshire victory, save maybe Clinton dropping out of the race. But as far as I'm concerned, a negative reaction to what has happened this year in this campaign is kind of like meeting a beautiful stranger who you never hoped would find you attractive, charming them to pieces, having two nights in a row of great sex with them and then being disappointed that they didn't say "I love you" yet. You need perspective in these things.

This is an improbable journey, as the man himself said, and it is by no means over.